Amazinga aphezulu angama-20 we-PV Wokuthunyelwa Kwemojula Yengxenye Ezintathu Zokuqala Zango-2023 Akhishiwe!

Izikhundla eziphezulu ezingama-20 ze-PV Module Zokuthunyelwa Kwengxenye Ezintathu Zokuqala zika-2023 Zikhishiwe

Uma ingena kwikota yesithathu, izintengo kuchungechunge lwemboni ye-PV ziphinde zaqina okwesikhashana kodwa zabuyela enkambweni eyehlayo ngenxa ye-inventory kanye namandla ezidingo zokuhlinzeka. Mayelana nokubhida kwamamojula, amabhrendi ahamba phambili (Aphezulu 4) namabhrendi asafufusa (Aphezulu 5-9) aqhubekile nokubusa, evame ukuwina amabhidi. Izinkampani ezifana ne-JinkoSolar, i-Yingli, i-Risen, i-GCL, ne-GS-Solar nazo zithole imiphumela ephawulekayo. Ngokwezintengo, izintengo zokubhida eziphansi kakhulu zohlobo lwe-p nohlobo lwe-n-module zazingu-0.9933 RMB/W kanye no-1.08 RMB/W, ngokulandelanayo. Ezinye izinkampani zize zacaphuna intengo efanayo yamamojula ohlobo lwe-n nohlobo lwe-p ekubhideni, okulethe isasasa kochwepheshe abaningi bemboni ye-PV.

Ngokusho kwedatha ekhishwe uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti kulo nyaka, ukukhiqizwa kwe-silicon ye-polycrystalline yaseChina kudlule amathani angu-839,500, ukukhiqizwa kwe-silicon wafer kudlula i-352.3 GW, ukukhiqizwa kwamaseli kudlule ku-309.2 GW, nokukhiqizwa kwemojula kudlule i-280.7 GW, konke okubonisayo ukukhula okubalulekile konyaka nonyaka. Mayelana nokufakwa, idatha evela ku-National Energy Administration ikhombisa ukuthi ukufakwa kwamandla elanga amasha e-China kufinyelele ku-128.94 GW kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuSepthemba. Nakuba ukufakwa okusha kwanyanga zonke ngo-August no-September kubonise ukwehla kancane, kuye kwabeka isisekelo esiqinile sokukhula kwemakethe kukonke unyaka wonke. Kulindeleke ukuthi ukufakwa kukagesi welanga okusha eShayina kufinyelele ku-150-160 GW (AC) kulo nyaka, kanti ukufakwa kukagesi omusha welanga emhlabeni jikelele kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-450 GW (DC), nokubeka irekhodi elisha.

Ngemva kwamasonto amabili okuxhumana, ucwaningo, nokuqinisekiswa yi-Solarbe.com kanye ne-Solarbe Consulting, izilinganiso zokuthunyelwa kwemojula ye-PV yezinkampani zase-Chinese PV esizitholile zimi kanje:

█ Izinga lemikhiqizo ephambili nesafufusa lihlala lizinzile, kunoshintsho oluncane kuphela ezikhundleni.

Ngenzuzo yayo ekuhlelweni kochungechunge lwemboni yohlobo lwe-n kanye nokuqashelwa komkhiqizo ezimakethe zaphesheya, i-JA Solar inqobe umncintiswano ngokuthunyelwa kwamamojula okwedlula ama-GW angama-52 kumakota amathathu okuqala, yedlula izimbangi zayo. Ukuthunyelwa kwemojula ye-Longi, Tongwei, kanye ne-JA Solar ezingxenyeni ezintathu zokuqala nakho bekusondele ezingeni lonyaka ogcwele wangonyaka odlule, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi bafinyelele imigomo yabo yonyaka ngaphandle kwengcindezi enkulu.

Phakathi kwemikhiqizo efufusayo, i-Tongwei ngokungangabazeki inselele enamandla kunabo bonke, ngokuthunyelwa kwemojula yekota eyodwa ecishe ibe ngu-11 GW kanye nokuthunyelwa okuphelele okungu-21-22 GW kumakota amathathu okuqala, ithola indawo yesi-6. I-Zhejiang Jinko Solar iphinde yabonisa ukuncintisana okuqinile, ukubamba iqhaza ngenkuthalo emisebenzini yokubhida nokuhlinzeka, ukusebenzisa wonke amathuba, kanye nokuzuza ukuthunyelwa kwemojula engaba ngu-20 GW kumakota amathathu okuqala.
█ Ama-oda aya ngokuya agxiliswa phakathi kwemikhiqizo ephambili nesafufusa, futhi okuqondiwe kokuthunyelwa kuye kwalungiswa ngokufanele.

Inzuzo embonini igeleza kakhulu ku-silicon wafer kanye nezingxenye zamaseli engxenyeni yesithathu. Amabhizinisi asevele esungule uchungechunge lwemboni oluphelele ngokuvamile ajabulela izinzuzo ezithile zezindleko. Ukwengeza, siqaphele ukuthi amanye amabhrendi aphambili nasafufusa abhida ngenkuthalo ngamanani aphansi futhi ahlinzeka ngokushesha ngemva kokuwina amabhidi, ngaleyo ndlela ezuza isabelo semakethe esikhulu.

Isibonelo, ezigabeni ezintathu zokuqala, inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwemojula labakhiqizi abane abaphezulu lifinyelele cishe ku-180 GW, libalwa ngaphezu kwama-50% emakethe. Imikhiqizo eyisishiyagalolunye ephezulu ithole ukuthunyelwa okuhlanganisiwe kwamamojula angaphezu kwama-275 GW, okwedlula ama-80% esidingo semakethe yomhlaba wonke, okushiya indawo elinganiselwe kwezinye izinkampani.

Uma kuqhathaniswa nombiko wangaphambilini, kungaqashelwa ukuthi amanye amabhrendi ahamba phambili nasafufusa akhuphule imigomo yawo yonyaka yokuthunyelwa, kuyilapho amanye amabhrendi esigaba sesibili nesesithathu alungise ngokulingene izinhloso zawo ngokusekelwe ekuhlolweni kwamazinga okuqedwa. Kulindeleke ukuthi umkhawulo wokukleliswa kwabangu-Top 10 ufinyelele ku-10 GW, futhi umkhawulo wokukleliswa kwabangu-20 abaPhezulu ungadlula u-4 GW.

█ Ubuchwepheshe bohlobo lwe-N buhlala buyindlela evamile embonini.

Mayelana nemizila yezobuchwepheshe yesikhathi esizayo, izinkampani eziningi zikhethe ubuchwepheshe bohlobo lwe-n, i-TOPCon idlula i-HJT ngokusobala. Ngokusekelwe kudatha enikezwe izinkampani zamamojula, ingxenye yokuthunyelwa kwemojula yohlobo lwe-n kumakota amathathu okuqala yayiphezulu noma isondele ku-40% ezinkampanini ezifana ne-JA Solar, Zhejiang Jinko Solar, Aikosolar, Shangde, ne-CSUN. Kodwa-ke, kukhona nezinkampani ezimbalwa ezinezilinganiso zemojula yohlobo lwe-n cishe ngo-10%.

Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi cishe wonke amakhono asanda kwakhiwa ezinkampani aqondise amaseli ohlobo lwe-n asebenza kahle kakhulu, futhi ezinye izinkampani sezizibekele imigomo yazo yokuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe bohlobo lwe-n ngo-2024. U-Zhejiang Jinko Solar uthe u-90% wokuthunyelwa kwamamojula azo. ngonyaka ozayo kuzoba amamojula ohlobo lwe-n. I-Aikosolar, i-GCL, kanye ne-Sunshine Energy nazo zikhuphule imigomo yazo yengxenye yokuthunyelwa kwemojula ye-n-type ukuya ku-75%, 70%, kanye no-60%, ngokulandelana. I-JA Solar ayikanikezi okuhlosiwe okuqondile kokuthunyelwa kwemojula ye-n-type ngo-2024, kodwa ingxenye yemojula yohlobo lwe-n kulo nyaka ayikho ngaphansi kwama-60%, okubonisa ukuthi izoba phezulu ngonyaka ozayo.